[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N78W...FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AS ITS SUPPORT IS NEAR 26N76W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO/THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN/THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY HAVE REACHED THE MAINLAND
U.S.A. WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING IN THE AREA OF EARLIER PRECIPITATION FROM 24N TO 28N
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE FOUND FROM
24N TO 30N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W...AND FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN
72W AND 82W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION HAS
DIMINISHED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY...
AND...IF NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE
POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 MPH.

A 1021 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N51W...ABOUT
775 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND ANY KIND OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 28N TO 36N BETWEEN
45W AND 57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W...AND
FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL HAITI ABOUT 10 KT. NO PRECIPITATION
CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N15W 7N22W 7N33W 7N36W 6N54W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EAST OF 10W...WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N13W 6N24W
9N34W 6N42W...AND SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
IT LOOKS LIKE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS TRYING TO
FORM NEAR 28N88W IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A SECOND
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 22N97W JUST OFF THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR TAMPICO. CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF WATERS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 92W AND
101W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE AREA
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN IN SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA...BUT
MUCH OF IT FROM 4 TO 6 HOURS AGO HAS DISAPPEARED. THE NORTHERN
PART OF A 92W/93W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER LAND BETWEEN THE WESTERN GUATEMALA
BORDER AND 94W. ISOLATED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS FOUND IN
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL HAITI. NO PRECIPITATION CAN BE ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY
WITH THIS WAVE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FROM
THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO PANAMA BETWEEN 76W AND 100W. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THIS ARE FROM HONDURAS TO PANAMA.
THIS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO THRIVE IN THE AREA OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAM FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS JAMAICA...AND
CURVE TO 14N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS PUERTO RICO TO 25N69W
TO 28N72W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALIVE AND WELL IN THE
AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN IN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR
35N52W TO 32N56W 29N58W 24N64W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 31N39W 24N50W 21N60W. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 21N63W 24N52W 27N44W 31N38W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND THE
34W/35W TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

$$
MT

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net