[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N77W OR
JUST NORTH OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A 1022 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N50W OR ABOUT
750 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...FROM 33N-35N BETWEEN 48W-52W. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 67W-72W.  THE WAVE IS ALSO
ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA...
INCLUDING LAKE MARACAIBO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL
WAVE WILL REACH EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 91W SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
CONTINUE TO AFFECT GUATEMALA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 8N20W 6N40W 6N53W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 13W-17W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 19W-24W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-9N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 27N93W.  LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING PATCHES OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER LOUISIANA...
MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 85W-95W.  A
TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND
OVER GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN
80W-83W DUE TO THE 1012 MB LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A TINY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER NE MEXICO NEAR
23N98W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.
ANOTHER TINY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE SAME SIZE IS OFF THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N88W.  FURTHER S... UPPER LEVEL WLY
FLOW IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 20N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 20N
WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS S OF 20N. EXPECT... ACTIVE PREFRONTAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INLAND OVER THE SE UNITED STATES TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.  ALSO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER N FLORIDA
TOMORROW FROM THE APPROACHING LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  IN ADDITION... PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS FROM 7N-15N
BETWEEN 79W-88W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 74W-80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA
NEAR 14N85W.  ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.   EXPECT
THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS ABOVE.  IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
30N50W TO 26N60W 20N67W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 57W-67W.  A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 44N37W DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ARE STILL SHOWING A BROAD AREA
OF AFRICAN DUST BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE COAST OF
AFRICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N75W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM
20N-32N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A RIDGE IS FURTHER E...N OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-70W.  A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
34N50W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  A RIDGE IS
N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

$$
FORMOSA


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