[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 27N77W OR
JUST NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A 1021 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N49W OR ABOUT
900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...COVERING FROM 32N-36N BETWEEN 47W-52W. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO JUST THIS
WAVE. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE WAVE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THAT ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WAVE IS ALSO PROBABLY ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA...INCLUDING LAKE MARACAIBO. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 89W/90W
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 7N30W 7N33W 6N45W 6N53W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
AROUND 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 24W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN
34W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A HIGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS TEXAS...THE N GULF COAST AND THE SE PORTION OF U.S. THE
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN STILL DOMINATES SOUTH
MEXICO...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS OVER THE GULF EAST OF 86W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW LOCATED IN THE BAHAMAS IS SPREADING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE
DOMINATES THE N GULF. AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
NEAR 27N93W. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 80N-82W. OTHER
SHOWERS  ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 12.5N83W AND COVERS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WEST/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER DRY AIR IS SEEN OVER CUBA WHILE
ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ARE JUST OFF THE VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA COAST WITH MODERATE
TRADES OF 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN MON THROUGH WED
INCREASING THE WINDS TO 20-25 KT...MAINLY SOUTH OF 15N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. A
LARGE AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS FROM
20N-26N BETWEEN 50W-70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AND SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THIS ZONE. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1037 MB HIGH LOCATED WELL N OF THE
REGION. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE ATLANTIC EAST OF
45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MIDDLE/UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W WITH ONE TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE E
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ANOTHER ONE EXTENDING WWD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE SE GULF. UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS IN BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE
LARGE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
DURING THE LAST  FEW DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER IS NEAR 33N50W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 28W COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC.

$$
GR


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