[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO JUST
THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARBY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
67W/68W MOVING WEST 15 KT TO 20 KT. THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN
65W AND 68W HAVE BEEN WEAKENING IN THE WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 63W
AND 66W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE
OCCURRING IN VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 16N86W.
THE NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OVER LAND IN
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS SIX HOURS AGO
HAVE MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO THE WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
GULF OF HONDURAS FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF 85W FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO 20N.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 9N13W 8N21W 8N29W 7N33W 5N41W 6N55W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AFRICA COAST
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN
16W AND 19W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 15W AND
20W...WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N21W 8N32W
4N43W 4N51W...AND FROM 2N TO 6N EAST OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM LOW CENTER JUST
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 31N117W TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR
20N112W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER MEXICO WITH
THE HIGH CENTER NEAR 26N105W IN NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACCOMPANY THE 25N98W
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS CONNECTS THE 25N98W
LOW CENTER TO THE ELEUTHERA LOW CENTER IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF 22N IS ANTICYCLONIC...WITH
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IN NORTHERN
NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 23N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
69W WITH COMPARATIVELY NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION. A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 89W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WERE OVER LAND IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS
SIX HOURS AGO HAVE MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO THE WATERS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED
WITH THE WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF 85W FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TO 20N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
INTERIOR COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W IN
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND THE LAKE MARACAIBO AREA OF
VENEZUELA...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W.
THE COLOMBIA THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE DUE TO THE ITCZ...NOT SURE.
THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF 12N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA OVER THE WATERS HAVE DISSIPATED. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. THE FLOW NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W IS CYCLONIC...WAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAHAMAS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
26N76W...FORECAST TO REACH THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY
24 HOURS. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 25N75W...ABOUT 50 NM EAST OF
ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
24N TO 31N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W IN THE AREA OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE ELEUTHERA LOW CENTER. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 20N66W TO 26N88W BEYOND 32N60W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND TROUGH INFLUENCE THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS NEXT. THE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 33N47W. THE TROUGH
RUNS FROM THIS LOW TO 24N41W 18N45W 15N51W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. BROAD
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 27N EAST
OF 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR RUNS FROM
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 27N25W.

$$
MT



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