[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240017
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 27N74W OR ABOUT 330
MILES EAST OF FLORIDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE WEEKEND.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 26W-31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 66W/67W
MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 87W
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 12 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM
12N-18N BETWEEN 82W-86W... SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 86W-91W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 8N20W 8N30W 5N45W 6N60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 10W-14W... AND
FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 14W-16W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 26W-31W... AND FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 37W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W.
LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ARE OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO.  PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER S MISSISSIPPI AND S ALABAMA FROM
30N-32N BETWEEN 87W-90W.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 86W-91W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TINY CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N98W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS
WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.  ANOTHER TINY CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OF THE SAME SIZE IS OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W.
FURTHER S...UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 22N.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 22N WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS S OF
22N. EXPECT ACTIVE PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INLAND OVER
THE SE UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  ALSO EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER N FLORIDA TOMORROW FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  IN ADDITION... NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 77W-81W...IS OVER
N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 73W-77W...AND IS OVER NW
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 70W-72W TO INCLUDE LAKE
MARACAIBO.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 68W-77W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N85W.  ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.   EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS ABOVE.  IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
31N50W TO 27N60W 21N65W.   WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 57W-67W.  A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 44N39W DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC N OF
20N BETWEEN 10W-65W.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ARE STILL SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN
DUST BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE COAST OF AFRICA.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN
70W-80W.  A RIDGE IS FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W.  A
LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 33N47W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
20W-30W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO
NEAR 34N4W.

$$
FORMOSA






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