[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 26.5N73.5W OR ABOUT 200
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE WEEKEND.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO THE WAVE.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 65W
MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
RELATED TO THIS WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON TROUGH
SATURDAY.

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST NEAR 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS AFFECTING BELIZE AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AS WELL AS THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WHILE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 8N24W 7N35W 6N50W 7N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80/100
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-43W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FOUND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 10W-15W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SW AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH
A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SE U.S. AND THE N GULF. THE
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALSO DOMINATES SOUTH
MEXICO...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 23N.  AT THE SURFACE...A
RIDGE IS ALONG THE N COAST TO OVER TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF FROM 23N96.5W TO
20N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. HIGH PRES ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY AND SAT AS THE CURRENTLY
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS MOVES W-NW FROM THE W ATLC TOWARD FLORIDA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A
SECOND ONE IS ALONG 85W/86W ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS  AND PARTS OF HISPANIOLA JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT CROSSES THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR CABO GRACIAS A DIOS IN
NICARAGUA AND DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WEST/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERS THE
SE PORTION OF THE BASIN.  ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS
MOST OF THE BASIN. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ABC ISLANDS.
STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE S AND
SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH MODERATE TRADES OF 10-15 KT OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH...
IS ALONG 31N54W 26N61W 21N66W. AN AREA OF SCATTRED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM
20N-23N BETWEEN 58W-63W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND WITHIN
AROUND 80 NM BEHIND THIS FEATURE FROM 23N-25N. ANOTHER AREA OF
MAINLY SHOWERS IS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 44W-50W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1035 MB HIGH
LOCATED WELL N OF THE REGION. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVERS THE ATLANTIC EAST OF 40W. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ARE STILL SHOWING A BROAD AREA
OF AFRICAN DUST BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE COAST OF
AFRICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MIDDLE/UPPER LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CUBA. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W TO 25N65W. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 33N47W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 25W
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC.

$$
GR





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