[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO JUST
THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARBY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
62W/63W MOVING WEST 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND
FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 59W AND 631W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW...WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 14N85W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W
IN THE BIGGEST AREA OF PRECIPITATION. SMALLER AREAS OF NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 84W
AND 87W...FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...AND ALONG THE
PANAMA COAST FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N12W 8N23W 7N28W 5N42W 8N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 7N
BETWEEN 9W AND 13W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N15W 7N27W 6N35W 5N46W 10N61W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM LOW CENTER IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 31N114W TO A SECOND WEAKER LOW
CENTER NEAR 20N110W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER MEXICO WITH THE HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N105W IN NORTH CENTRAL
INTERIOR MEXICO. ONE SMALL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS
IN EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 22N99W...AND A SECOND SMALL LOW CENTER
IS IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SOUTH OF 23N IS ANTICYCLONIC...WITH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 23N. A FAINT HINT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND IN MISSISSIPPI FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
62W/63W WITH COMPARATIVELY NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W. THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. THE SECOND AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS MOVED OFFSHORE MORE
AND IS REALLY MORE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF GUATEMALA FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. THE BELIZE
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED AND WEAKENED. LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IS FOUND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 20N TO
34N. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THIS PART OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH AT ONE POINT IN TIME MORE THAN A
FEW DAYS AGO WAS PART OF A TROUGH. THIS LOW NOW SEEMS TO BE CUT
OFF NEAR 26N74W ABOUT 140 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 21N TO 33N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
23N TO 27N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT THIS SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO
FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY A POSSIBLE BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 20N66W TO
26N88W BEYOND 32N60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
AND TROUGH INFLUENCE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NEXT. THE LOW
CENTER IS NEAR 36N47W. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW TO 28N48W
17N49W 13N59W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W...
AND FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 41W AND 55W...AND NORTH OF 32N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN
NORTHERN MOROCCO NEAR 33N7W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND AFRICA NORTH OF 25N EAST
OF 21W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR RUNS FROM THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO 30N24W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA NEAR 10N60W...PART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...ROUGHLY ALONG 11N EAST OF 60W.

$$
MT




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