[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222327
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED WITH A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
NEAR 11N23W.  AN AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 21W-24W. REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70/90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-13N. REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ.  THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS
WAVE SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT ENHANCING THE
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND THE W CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 82W-86W.  A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 8N23W 4N35W 4N40W 7N50W 7N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 12W-15W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 24W-31W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 53W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR
30N89W.  LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ARE OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 83W-85W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER SW FLORIDA FROM 25N-26N BETWEEN 81W-82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER SE TEXAS FROM
29N-31N BETWEEN 95W-97W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA WHERE
SELY FLOW IS NOTED DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER E
GEORGIA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 23N...WHILE ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 23N.  EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  IN ADDITION... SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 69W-72W...AND OVER E CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 74W-79W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N85W.  ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.   EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 32N73W 24N74W DRIFTING W. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEMS HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN
67W-72W.  A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 43N40W DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-65W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER N  FLORIDA AND
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N AND W OF 80W.  A TINY CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 27N75W.  A RIDGE IS FURTHER E...N
OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W.  A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 33N44W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN
30W-60W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-30W.  A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N9W.

$$
FORMOSA




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