[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 21W
SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED
WITH A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR 10N21W. AN AREA OF
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 21W-23W. REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56/57W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70/90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-13N. REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ. EARLIER QUIKSCAT SHOWS MODERATE TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS E OF THE MAIN AXIS. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 20N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. THIS
WAVE SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 79W-85W. PART OF THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA
AND NE HONDURAS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND THE NE PORTION OF BELIZE. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT
IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.


...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N30W 6N40 7N55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-120 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 20W-33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 55W-57W JUST BEHIND
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS LOCATED ALONG 57W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH
A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SE U.S. INCLUDING THE STATE OF
FLORIDA AND THE FAR NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 86W. THE BROAD UPPER
HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALSO DOMINATES SOUTH MEXICO...THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO OVER TEXAS. AS OF 1500
UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N94W TO 18N95W. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE RIDGE ALONG THE N GULF COAST WILL
WEAKEN AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N82W
AND DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE
GULF OF HONDURAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG
81W. DRY AIR IS OVER THE ABC ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA.
STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
S AND SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH MODERATE TRADES OF 10-15 KT OVER
THE N CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 24N76W TO 32N71W AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEMS HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
ALONG 32N50W 26N55W 20N60W. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER AREA OF MAINLY SHOWERS
IS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 44W-50W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ARE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1036 MB
HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS
THE ATLANTIC EAST OF 44W. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ARE STILL SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST EAST OF 55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SE U.S. ALSO AFFECT THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 76W. THE
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETREAT N AND NARROW OVER THE W
ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-76W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W TO
BEYOND 32N63W. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
CENTERED NEAR 33N45W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 13N FROM
35W-60W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 25W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC.

$$
GR



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