[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF
LINE 13N56W-10N61W AND WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
LATER TODAY. REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ANY
CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS. WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 5N31W 7N49W 6N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
44W-55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75/90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN THE COAST
OF AFRICA AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH
A SECOND UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EXTENDING
OVER THE W ATLC...FAR SE US...FLORIDA...AND THE FAR NE GULF N OF
26N E OF 86W. THE BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING
N OVER THE FAR S GULF S OF 24N INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC THROUGH A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
29N86W ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO OVER TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N76W
AND COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. BROAD AREA OF OVERCAST
CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 18N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED ALONG SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IS OVER THE W
ATLC N OF 26N W OF 76W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR NE GULF. THE
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETREAT N AND NARROW OVER THE W
ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N69W SW TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
21N73W-26N69W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200/250 NM OF LINE FROM S OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 17N71W TO BEYOND 32N67W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N69W TO BEYOND 32N63W. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 33N44W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR
S AS 13N FROM 31W-60W. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION REMAINS FROM
30N45W TO BEYOND 33N43W OUT OF THE REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 14N17W TO NEAR 10N40W
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W
OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THIN
LAYERED OF AFRICAN DUST NOW COVERS A SMALLER PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N FROM 35W-60W.

$$
WALLACE



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