[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220443
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ DUE TO THE AFRICAN DUST.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT REMAINS UNORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.
WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN
WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 6N30W 6N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
41W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 28W-32W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 46W-53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE
REMAINING AREA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 28W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH
AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA IS OVER THE W
ATLC...FAR SE US...FLORIDA...AND THE FAR NE GULF N OF 25N E OF
86W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE W COAST OF
FLORIDA ARE DISSIPATING LEAVING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 28N W OF
84W. THE BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING N OVER
THE FAR S GULF S OF 23N INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE N GULF COAST
TO OVER TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W
AND COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. BROAD AREA OF OVERCAST
CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 17N FROM 80W-89W INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA IS OVER THE W ATLC N
OF 27N W OF 76W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR NE GULF. THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT N OVER THE W ATLC AND
NARROW N OF 23N BETWEEN 71W-76W. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N70W SW TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
22N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
22N73W-26N70W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 200/250 NM OF LINE FROM
THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 20N71W TO BEYOND 32N66W. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
MONA PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N64W. THE LARGE UPPER LOW NOW
ENCOMPASSING THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 33N43W WITH THE
UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 13N FROM 30W-60W. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS BUT IS N OF THE REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 14N17W TO NEAR 10N40W COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF 70W
ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THIN LAYER OF
AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES THUS LIMITING CONVECTION OF THE ITCZ TO S OF 10N
WITH CLEARING FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


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