[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220013
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT.  AN
INVERTED-V PATTERN IS N OF THE ITCZ.  NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
IS NOTED PARTLY DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF AFRICAN DUST. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TOMORROW
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THIS WAVE.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20
KT. STRONG WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA SOUTH OF
11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE WAVE IS
STILL AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THU...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 6N27W 7N40W 7N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 12W-16W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 26W-30W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 40W-45W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 47W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 29N85W.  10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN
88W-94W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N93W.  UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS S OF 21N.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N80W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER
FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF
21N.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
...AND BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  IN ADDITION... SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW
VENEZUELA TO INCLUDE LAKE MARACAIBO FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
71W-75W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N76W.  ABUNDANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.   EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 30N70W 22N75W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM
24N-28N BETWEEN 70W-73W.  A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 42N38W DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 10W-65W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N AND W OF 76W.  A TINY
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 27N73W.  A RIDGE IS
FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W.  A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 33N42W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N
BETWEEN 30W-60W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-30W.  A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR
32N11W.

$$
FORMOSA









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