[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT...WITH
AN INVERTED V-PATTERN EMBEDDED WITH THE ITCZ. NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION OFF THE ITCZ DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF AFRICAN DUST.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
TOMORROW AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ACCORDING TO THE 21/1500 UTC CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER
A HUGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THIS WAVE.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
STRONG WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA SOUTH OF
11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE WAVE IS
STILL AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALSO SEEN AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS OVER JAMAICA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THU...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 5N30W 7N40W 7N51W 10N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100/120
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION MOVING JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 10N-13N EAST
OF 20W ARE PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF AFRICA WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.


...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W COVERING
THE ENTIRE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ENE ACROSS
THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH
OVER NW MEXICO ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO OFF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA BAY N OF
THE KEYS TO 26N E OF 83W TO THE FLORIDA W COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE NE
CORNER OF THE GULF WSW TO OFF THE TEXAS COAST LEAVING THE GULF
MOSTLY SHOWER FREE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. THE STRONGEST SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE
BASIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 76W.
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
THE COASTAL WATERS...THE MONA PASSAGE AND EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. ELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 23N FROM OVER
FLORIDA TO 74W. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM 31N68W SW
ALONG 27N73W TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. LARGE AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 71W-75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN ON THE NORTHERN
END OF THE TROUGH FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 66W-69W. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
ALONG 65W FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N. THE REST OF
THE ATLC AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT
IS CENTERED NEAR 32N42W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 16N FROM
27W-60W. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW
EXTENDS ALONG 31N42W 24N45W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF
70W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
GR








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