[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK
BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION F OF THE ITCZ DUE TO THE
ABUNDANCE OF AFRICAN DUST WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 2N FROM 44W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. STRONG
WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS NOT ORGANIZED
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA/PANAMA FROM 75W/77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE N CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 17N67W-18N75W-
15N80W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 4N30W 6N41W 7N51W 10N62W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150/200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 29W-53W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF
24W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W
COVERING THE ENTIRE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER HIGH OVER NW MEXICO ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM TEXAS
TO OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS PUSHING S OVER THE FAR SE US OVER FLORIDA N OF 24N E
OF 84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA BAY N OF THE KEYS TO
26N E OF 83W TO THE FLORIDA W COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
EXTENDING THROUGH A 1019 MB HIGH OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE WSW TO OFF THE TEXAS COAST LEAVING THE GULF MOSTLY
SHOWER FREE TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR
13N76W AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N79W NW TO NICARAGUA
NEAR 12N84W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS
THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER FLOW IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA S OF
20N E OF 67W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 24N FROM OVER
FLORIDA TO 75W. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM 31N69W SW
ALONG 27N73W TO OVER THE N/CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN
66W-77W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
ALONG 67W FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N. THE LARGE
UPPER LOW NOW ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE ATLC AND IS CENTERED NEAR
32N40W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 16N FROM 27W-61W. WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION EXTENDS ALONG 41W FROM 27N-34N. ELSEWHERE AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N
OF THE REGION. THIN LAYER OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N TO THE LESSER ANTILLES THUS LIMITING
CONVECTION OF THE ITCZ TO S OF 10N WITH CLEARING FROM THE
AFRICAN COAST TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE







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