[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 210436
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
BROAD MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF
AFRICAN DUST.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
STRONG WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS
OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS
NOT ORGANIZED TO PRODUCE A TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
71W-75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE NE
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 62W-76W INCLUDING THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND SE
BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS NOW
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH
SIGNATURE CURVATURE REMAINING VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. DEEP
CONVECTION IS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 80W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 7N21W 4N33W 7N45W 9N62W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250/300 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 54W ACROSS THE
ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF 90W
COVERING THE ENTIRE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER HIGH OVER NW MEXICO ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM TEXAS
TO OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR TAMPA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
PUSHING S OVER THE FAR SE US CLIPPING NE FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH INLAND FROM OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH PRODUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DISSIPATING. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH A 1018 MB HIGH OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR PENSACOLA W TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER THUS
LEAVING THE GULF MOSTLY SHOWER FREE TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
NEAR 11N75W AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 20N
FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER COSTA RICA. A SECOND WEAKER UPPER HIGH IS
JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. ANY OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC ALBEIT MUCH NARROWER
THAN LAST NIGHT COVERING ONLY THE FAR W ATLC FROM FLORIDA TO
75W. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM 30N69W SW TO OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 65W-79W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ALONG 67W FROM THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N. THE LARGE UPPER LOW NOW ENCOMPASSES MOST
OF THE ATLC AND IS CENTERED NEAR 32N40W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS
FAR S AS 18N FROM 26W-60W. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EXTENDS ALONG
39W/40W FROM 27N-34N. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF
70W ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THIN LAYER
OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N TO
THE LESSER ANTILLES THUS LIMITING CONVECTION OF THE ITCZ TO S OF
10N. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CLEARING FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE





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