[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202310
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 18N. THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT. A BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL
SWIRL OF CLOUDS IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY MAKING
THIS WAVE EASY TO LOCATE. DESPITE THE CLEAR WAVE
SIGNATURE...THERE IS LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNFAVORABLE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 20
KT. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND
THE WAVE AXIS...LIKELY STRONGEST IN CONVECTION. THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE TRIGGERING A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 64W-72W.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 83W/84W
SOUTH OF 15N. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO TRACK OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS AS MUCH OF ITS IDENTITY BECAME ILL-DEFINED IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS ADJUSTMENT IS BASED UPON SOME VEERING OF
WINDS AND INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. IN
ADDITION...THIS WAVE WAS MOVED CONSIDERING THE SYNOPTIC
STEERING.  REGARDLESS OF WHERE THIS WAVE IS EXACTLY...IT REMAINS
RATHER WEAK.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 4N29W 7N44W 9N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-28W AND 34W-39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 43W-51W POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W/45W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NW GULF THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS S TEXAS IS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LINGERING N OF 28N W OF 94W TO INLAND
OVER TEXAS. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF IS UNDER WEAK UPPER
RIDGING EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SE CORNER WHERE A WEAKENING UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT THE SFC...A 1020
MB HIGH IS LOCATED S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 29N86W.
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 27N
WITH FAIR SKIES SOUTH OF THERE WITH LIGHT E TO SE WINDS. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THRU THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 78W-83W. THIS REGION IS IN A ZONE OF
HIGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SOME SFC FORCING FROM A NEARBY
TROPICAL WAVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER MORE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LIES
FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 64W-72W THIS INCLUDES HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN EASTERN ISLANDS. SOME OF THE CONVECTION IS
BECOMING INTENSE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND E
CUBA. THIS BATCH OF WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 72W. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DISORGANIZED BUT IT WILL SPREAD ITS MOISTURE TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TOMORROW. TRADE WINDS ARE NEAR 15-20 KT AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MODERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LARGE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH REMAINS STRONG AND NEARLY STATIONARY.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN LIES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC BASIN. A NARROW WEAKENING ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
HAS A SFC REFLECTION AS A TROUGH ALONG 30N70W 24N78W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DISSIPATING TREND OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS EXCEPT FOR A CLUSTER WELL TO THE EAST OF THE SFC
TROUGH AXIS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 69W-71W. THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ALSO COVERS A PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC
FROM 53W-77W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N40W. THIS FEATURE ALSO HAS A SFC
REFLECTION AS A TROUGH FROM 35N39W TO 27N41W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 400 NM OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. UPPER RIDGING IS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE TROPICAL AND EASTERN ATLC SE OF THE UPPER
LOW. SAHARAN DUST IS WIDESPREAD IN THE E ATLC SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION. EARLIER VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWED HAZY CONDITIONS
INDICATING POSSIBLE DUST CONDITIONS. AT THE SFC...BESIDES FOR
THE SFC TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC...HIGH PRES RIDGING IS THE THEME. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER LIES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION NOT OUTLINED.

$$
CANGIALOSI





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