[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 201803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 19N WEST 15 KT. THIS
WAVE SHOWS UP REALLY WELL IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. NO DEEP SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT JUST BECAUSE OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ
FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
THIS WAVE JUST HAS CLEARED PUERTO RICO. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREAD OUT
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W. SOME CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPECIFICALLY
ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THIS WAVE...THANKS TO THE
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 13N58W JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS JAMAICA AT THIS TIME.
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS WAVE ARE BLOWING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A HIGH CENTER JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N58W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N15W 5N27W 7N40W 7N45W 8N55W 10N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N9W 6N16W 4N24W 4N28W
6N32W 5N43W 6N52W 8N56W 10N61W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF
70W...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FOUND IN SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT
REGARDING PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THIS FEATURE.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N71W 26N75W 23N80W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
24N73W 26N75W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN
69W AND 74W...TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS TAKING PLACE UNDER A RIDGE IMMEDIATELY TO
THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST AND COASTAL PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN
94W AND 98W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN SOUTH TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TROUGH. THE REST OF THE AREA WEST OF 70W ALSO IS
EXPERIENCING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A 13N58W ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH
CENTER COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. ONE TROPICAL WAVE JUST HAS
PASSED OVER PUERTO RICO BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE 77W/78W TROPICAL WAVE ON TOP
OF JAMAICA DOES NOT CARRY PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EAST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 30N39W. A TROUGH GOES
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N46W AND 17N50W.  CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS
WITHIN NEARLY 600 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 27N42W 30N42W 32N42W 36N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 33W AND 38W...AND FROM
30N TO 34N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH INTERRUPTS
OTHERWISE BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.

$$
MT


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