[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAKER
BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS TO THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE ENHANCING THE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 19N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
FROM 60W-71W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES TO PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE CURVATURE REMAINS WEAK AS IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF DRY AIR. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N27W 7N47W 11N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 11W-29W AND FROM 53W-59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 29W-36W AND FROM
39W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE LOUISIANA/
TEXAS FROM 32N93W TO 27N98W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER
E TEXAS FROM 31N95W TO 28N99W GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 26N W OF 92W. THIS HAS CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THAT AREA
OF TEXAS YESTERDAY. THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W
ATLC EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
SW ACROSS THE NW TIP OF THEW YUCATAN TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM E LOUISIANA TO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS QUIET THIS
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS SW INTO
THE GULF CLIPPING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 77W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N FROM HAITI TO E CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 13N ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING NW
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 10N80W TO INLAND
OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N73W ACROSS FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM 28N70W SW ACROSS THE N
BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 23N79W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN
68W-78W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 30N BETWEEN 58W-80W. BROAD RIDGE
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 50W-70W ANCHORED IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N57W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE
E ATLC NEAR 30N39W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 18N AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EXTENDING FROM 33N36W TO 24N41W.
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
WELL N OF THE REGION. THIN LAYER OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N VERY CLOSE TO THE LESSER ANTILLES
THUS LIMITING CONVECTION OF THE ITCZ TO S OF 10N.

$$
WALLACE



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