[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAKER
BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 37W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS TO THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE ENHANCING THE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 18N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
FROM 57W-69W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE CURVATURE REMAINS WEAK AS IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF DRY AIR. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 6N18W 9N40W 9N55W 12N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 50W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE LOUISIANA/
TEXAS FROM 31N92W TO 27N98W WITH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N
FROM 93W-97W. THIS HAS CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THAT AREA OF
TEXAS YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC HAS
ELONGATED DURING THE DAY MONDAY EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS HAS
FORCED THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL GULF LAST NIGHT TO ALONG
THE N GULF COAST TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS
QUIET TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N E OF 83W TO OVER
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS SW INTO THE GULF
AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N FROM HAITI TO CUBA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N FROM 77W-83W DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA
BORDER. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE E CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC ALTHOUGH IT HAS
ELONGATED DURING THE DAY MONDAY NOW EXTENDING THROUGH 32N72W
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
EXTENDING FROM 29N72W SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR
23N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
24N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-79W AND WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF
24N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 28N BETWEEN
66W-80W. BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 50W-57W
ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N55W. A LARGE UPPER LOW
IS CENTERED IN THE E ATLC NEAR 30N38W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR
S AS 19N AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EXTENDING FROM 32N35W TO
25N42W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH
WELL N OF THE REGION. THIN LAYER OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
THUS LIMITING CONVECTION OF THE ITCZ TO S OF 10N.

$$
WALLACE


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