[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192315
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AHEAD ALONG 37W SOUTH OF 15N.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT EMBEDDED IN SWIFT
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH. LOW-MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS
SATELLITE REPRESENTATION AND CONSIDERING THE FORWARD SPEED
CONTINUITY OF THE WAVE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS THE REASON FOR
THE WAVE ADJUSTMENT. DESPITE THE FAIR WAVE SIGNATURE...LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

A MORE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. A FEW OF THE
ISLAND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS INDICATING THE WAVE PASSAGE. SIMILAR TO THE WAVE TO ITS
EAST...THIS WAVE IS ALSO STEERED BY SWIFT LOW-MID LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THERE IS LOW-MID LEVEL TURNING NEAR THE AXIS WITH MUCH OF
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN
240 NM. WHILE THIS WAVE DOES APPEAR MORE CONVECTIVE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED AHEAD IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
74W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT BASED UPON SLIGHT
VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION AND CONSIDERING CONTINUITY OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION
IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 9N28W 9N42W 14N59W. BESIDES
FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AXIS E OF 28W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE GULF IS IN THE NW CORNER
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL 1015 MB LOW OVER S TEXAS NEAR 29.5N
95.4W. THIS LOW IS FAIRLY STATIONARY AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SE TEXAS...SW LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL
WATERS. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES
IN THAT REGION. THESE TOTALS WILL RISE AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS CONTINUE FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 92W-96W. A WEAK SFC TROUGH
IS ALONG 90W FROM 26N-30N. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS
ALREADY DISSIPATED. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RELATIVELY
QUIET UNDER WEAK SFC HIGH PRES PRODUCING LIGHT E/SE WINDS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS A FAIRLY WEAK PATTERN ACROSS THE
GULF WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER NW MEXICO AND A BROAD ELONGATED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA. QUIET WEATHER IS LIKELY
TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NW GULF...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN. A NE-SW ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 18N58W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO 73W. A SFC TROUGH IS
DRAPED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 29N74W 24N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
WITHIN 180 NM TO THE WEST OF THE AXIS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER
HISPANIOLA POSSIBLY INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W AND
IN THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 60W-64W TRIGGERED BY MOIST
SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 58W-63W. THIS
WAVE WILL SPREAD ITS MOISTURE TO PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
TOMORROW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SCATTERED
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 18N58W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN
50W-73W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N38W WITH
ITS CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA FROM 28W-49W N OF 20N.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. AT THE
SURFACE...A DOMINATING 1033 MB AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH CONTROLS THE
SFC PATTERN PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. THE ONLY BLEMISH IN
THIS RIDGE IS A REFLECTION OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW AS A SFC
TROUGH. SAHARAN DUST IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE E ATLC
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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