[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WELL-DEFINED BROAD MULTILAYERED CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED
ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 10N54W-15N59W.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING
WITH HEAVER RAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE CURVATURE REMAINS WEAK AS IT CONTINUES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. WAVE REMAINS BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N27W 7N49W 15N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 9N W OF 9W AND WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 31W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM
1N-10N BETWEEN 43W-56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 13W-23W AND FROM
42W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO TEXAS
AND THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 93W. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS INLAND
OVER E TEXAS NEAR 30N95W GENERATING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W LOUISIANA AND TEXAS FROM
92W-96W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE W ATLC INCLUDES THE E
GULF E OF 88W. THIS LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF STATES. GULF REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 82W
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S TO OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W TO CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N FROM 76W-83W.
THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N FROM
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 65W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN FROM W OF 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH 31N69W SW OVER THE BAHAMAS TO 24N76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 28N
BETWEEN 66W-80W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN
60W-66W. NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN THE W ATLC TROUGH AND A
BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N36W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S TO 21N48W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
WELL N OF THE REGION. THE DEEP TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
HIGH OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N50W. A THIN LAYER OF
AFRICAN DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE E ATLC S OF 20N E OF 55W THUS
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
30W.

$$
WALLACE




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