[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190435
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WELL-DEFINED BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED
ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 52W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE CURVATURE REMAINS WEAK AS IT CONTINUES OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N
BETWEEN 65W-68W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 7N35W 13N55W 10N60W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 7W-22W...FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 25W-40W...FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN
44W-51W...AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 51W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO TEXAS
AND THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 92W WITH AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL LOW
NEAR 24N96W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE W ATLC INCLUDES THE
E GULF E OF 87W. THIS LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GULF REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 84W
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S TO OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W TO CENTRAL AMERICA. DIMINISHING AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA HAVE LEFT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
N OF 10N FROM 78W-85W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS S
OF 10N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA FROM 77W-82W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN FROM W OF 65W. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W SW TO 26N74W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH S OF 29N. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE N COAST OF
HAITI TO OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS. NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN
THE W ATLC TROUGH AND A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N35W
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 21N44W. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THE DEEP
TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N52W. DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC IS GENERATING AN AREA OF OVERCAST CLOUDINESS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN
56W-67W. A THIN LAYER OF AFRICAN DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE E
ATLC S OF 20N E OF 50W THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W.

$$
WALLACE



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