[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE CURVATURE REMAINS WEAK AS IT CROSSES THE E CARIBBEAN.
WAVE IS BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 3N30W 12N47W 6N50W
7N60W.CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 13W ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-47W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
47W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO TEXAS
AND THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 92W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT
IS IN THE W ATLC INCLUDES THE E GULF N OF 22N E OF 86W. THIS
LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 22N91W WITH A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GULF REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 85W
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY TWO UPPER HIGHS...THE ONE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SECOND OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N FROM 70W-83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N FROM
HISPANIOLA THROUGH CUBA. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90
NM ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 12N W OF 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S ACROSS THE W ATLC
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM W OF
60W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N63W SW TO
26N71W. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AT
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH S OF 28N FROM 63W-83W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN
THE W ATLC TROUGH AND A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N35W
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 21N35W. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THE DEEP
TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N48W AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
ALONG 16N/17N E OF 30W. DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER
HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS GENERATING AN AREA OF OVERCAST
CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
18N-28N BETWEEN 54W-60W. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER THIN LAYER OF
AFRICAN DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE E ATLC S OF 20N E OF 40W THUS
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
21W.

$$
WALLACE



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