[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180438
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE 8N16W-4N21W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 43W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE CURVATURE HAS DIMINISHED AS IT CROSSED INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE
BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA S OF 18N
FROM 68W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 5N25W 6N37W 10N45W 6N50W
5N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 2N
TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA FROM 6W-10W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-40W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 47W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO TEXAS
AND THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 91W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT
WAS IN THE W ATLC HAS RETROGRADED TO INCLUDE THE E GULF TONIGHT
N OF 22N E OF 85W. THIS LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER
AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 23N90W WITH A SHARP RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING N OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GULF IS FOR THE
MOST PART QUIET TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DIMINISHING
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S
OF 26N E OF 83W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY TWO UPPER HIGHS...THE ONE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SECOND OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 15N FROM 65W-85W. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN N
OF 18N FROM PUERTO RICO THROUGH CUBA. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S ACROSS THE W ATLC
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM W OF
60W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N63W SW TO
27N69W. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH S OF 25N FROM
60W-83W. NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN THE W ATLC TROUGH AND A
BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N35W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S TO 20N35W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH
WELL N OF THE REGION. THE DEEP TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 15N49W AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING
OFF THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG 15N/16N E OF 30W. DIFFLUENCE ON THE
W SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS GENERATING AN
AREA OF OVERCAST CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-28N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net