[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG 26W ON THE
06Z SURFACE MAP IS NO LONGER IDENTIFIABLE BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...LOW LEVEL CLOUD MOTION AND STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AT LOW LEVELS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 38W-44W.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES...MAINLY
GUADALOUPE AND DOMINICA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE
WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-21.5N BETWEEN
54W-61W. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AS THE DAY GOES ON BUT
MAINLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THUS DIMINISHING THE WAVE SIGNATURE.
NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 5N25W 8N38W 7N43W 5N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE AXIS FROM 18W-32W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 20 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 50W-52W AND ALONG THE COASTLINE
OF SURINAME.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL US INTO
TEXAS AND THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 92W. THIS TROUGH IS
ENHANCING THE TSTM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN TEXAS. REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 24N87W WITH A
BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE GULF...FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS VERY CLOSE TO THE TEXAS COAST...ACROSS THE STRAIT OF
FLORIDA AND WITHIN 20 NM N OF THE LOWER KEYS IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS. SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
GULF WHILE E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. MODERATE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN NE FLOW W OF
73W. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN AROUND 50 NM OF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OFF THE NW
COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA LATE SUNDAY TROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM JUST W OF
BERMUDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE ATTENDANT STATIONARY
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N64W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 29N68W
WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W TO 27N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
IS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALL THE WAY NE TO 31N61W AND BEYOND. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 30N33W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO
19N40W. A NARROW RIDGE IS BETWEEN THESE UPPER TROUGHS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
37N38W DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W. THE DEEP TROPICS IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 13N/14N W OF 60W.

$$
GR




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