[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE BASED ON A MID LEVEL ROTATION. NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
WELL-DEFINED N OF 12N AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. WAVE
IS INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
20N54W-16N60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THUS DIMINISHING THE WAVE SIGNATURE.
NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 6N23W 5N31W 8N40W 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N
OF THE AXIS FROM 17W-20W AND WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM
15W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM S OF
THE AXIS FROM 18W-38W AND WITHIN 225 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
30W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 44W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL US INTO
TEXAS AND THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 91W. REMAINDER OF THE GULF
IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 23N87W WITH A BROAD
RIDGE COVERING THE GULF AND A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GULF IS FOR THE MOST PART QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 26N E OF 83W
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN
NE FLOW W OF 73W AND FORCING THE DIMINISHING SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM HAITI NEAR 18N71W ACROSS JAMAICA ALONG 18N79W TO THE ISLE
OF YOUTH OFF THE CUBAN COAST. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO 16N65W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING THAT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM JUST W OF
BERMUDA TO THE US E COAST ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO N OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES. THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
JUST E OF BERMUDA TO 30N67W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES W
TO 28N78W. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE COAST OF CUBA
BETWEEN 75W AND THE FLORIDA COAST CONTINUING THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N63W
TO 21N65W DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN THE W ATLC TROUGH
AND A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N56W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N33W WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 19N40W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N39W. THE DEEP TROPICS IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 13N/14N W OF 60W. DIFFLUENCE
ON THE W SIDE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.

$$
WALLACE



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