[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG
22W/23W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
7N23W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. A FEW CELLS OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10-15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ISOLATED IS
MAINLY NORTH AND BEHIND THE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES FRI NIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SAT.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE AREA NE OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...BUT PART OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE
SATURDAY TROUGH SUNDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 83W/84W
SOUTH OF 20N AND HAS BEEN MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED WITH AN INVERTED
V CLOUD PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A COUPLE OF BANDS OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE
CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA.

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 8N20W 8N30W 8N37W 10N52W
10N48W 10N53W 10N57W 10N63W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LIES SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS TO NEAR THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
38W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 28N-97W WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
NE MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO ALABAMA AND
MISSISSIPPI...COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF WATERS
WEST OF 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE
CORNER OF THE GULF. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE W GULF THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN CUBA...
COVERING THE GULF...NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS LOCATED SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N WEST OF 70W. MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NORTH OF
13N AND WEST OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE
ABC ISLANDS...GIVING THE SE CARIBBEAN SWLY WIND FLOW. A WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ITS
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY OVER THAT AREA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N-22N ALONG
66W. A 1010 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THAT AREA. TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE
SEEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND IS
DIGGING TO 27N75W. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD/STATIONARY FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N68W THEN
CONTINUES MAINLY WEST ALONG 29N77W 31N85W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN SOUTH OF 30N DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEST OF 72W
WHILE AN AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS FROM
27N-31N BETWEEN 65W-72W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 27.5N78.5W
TO 24.5N82W CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN
THE VICINITY OF 28N34W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF
20N BETWEEN 26W-40W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 25N20W.
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE TROPICS. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 35N40W DOMINATES THE
EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 65W.

$$
GR




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