[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160622
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO
20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN
51W AND 59W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
AND ARE NOT HELPING THIS WAVE TO DEVELOP. SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE WIND FIELD IS OBSERVED IN THE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 17/0500 UTC FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W. THE 22N59W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS HELPING
TO CREATE SOME OF THIS DIFFLUENT FLOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 81W
SOUTH OF 21N AND HAS BEEN MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. A FEW CELLS OF MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.
SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND
OTHERS ARE DISSIPATING IN THIS AREA.

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 13N16W 10N25W 10N31W 8N35W 9N40W 11N47W 11N53W 11N55W
9N63W. A CYCLONIC SWIRL OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
5N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W PROBABLY IS THE INDICATOR OF THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO LEAVE FROM AFRICA. NOTHING HAS BEEN PLACED
ON ON THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS WITH REGARD TO THIS WAVE YET.
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC SWIRL WAS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 11W AND 17W.
THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE LAST 5 HOURS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 11N EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 55W...
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST STILL SEES THE SAME MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER THAT EXISTED ON 16/0600 UTC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW
RUNS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CLOUDS COVERS
THE GULF WATERS WEST OF 90W...AND NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 90W.
IT APPEARS THAT A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS TRYING
TO FORM IN THE WATER JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST AND IS DIGGING NOW THROUGH 32N76W TO 28N77W. THIS DEEP
LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH RUNS THROUGH
32N68W TO 30N76W TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...
AND FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 67W AND 68W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 50W...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 14N78W...
A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTH OF WHERE IT WAS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM
A 22N59W LOW CENTER INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM
10N75W TO 7N77W...POSSIBLY WITH THE ITCZ.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 27N33W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N TO
35N BETWEEN 28W AND 45W. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 29N35W LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 21N25W BEYOND 32N25W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 30N EAST OF
23W...WITH A LOW CENTER WEST OF PORTUGAL. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS
FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N43W...TO 30N50W
29N55W 28N65W TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST.

$$
MT


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