[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152344 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2006

...CORRECTION FOR ISSUANCE TIME...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W SOUTH OF 17N AND MOVING WEST 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CYCLONIC TURNING
COVERING A BROAD AREA UP TO EIGHT DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS. MAINLY LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FROM ABOUT 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 17N AND MOVING WEST
NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS LOST SOME OF ITS IDENTITY OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NEVERTHELESS IT IS STILL IDENTIFIABLE ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LOCATED FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 78W SOUTH
OF 19N AND MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. LIKE THE WAVE ALONG 51W/52W
THIS WAVE HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIE ALONG AND W OF
THE WAVE AXIS TO 85W FROM 16N TO 20N WITH MORE CONCENTRATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE NICARAGUA COAST TO 79W FROM 11N
TO 14N.

ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N28W 8N32W 7N40W 11N50W
9N62W. A LARGE AREA OF LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIES SOUTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR THE EQUATOR EAST OF
ABOUT 30W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 8N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...ATLANTIC W OF 70W...CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...
WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 26.5N98.5W...NEARLY STATIONARY. ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION A SUBTROPICAL JET IS LOCATED
FROM NEAR 20N100W TO 29N94W AND THEN TURNS EASTWARD ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BEYOND 32N72W. AT THE SURFACE A
TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM NEAR 26.5N92W TO 19N95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 26.5N92.5W
ARE MOVING NORTHEAST. OVER THE ATLANTIC THE SOUTHERN PART OF A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG AND OFF THE UNITED STATES EAST
COAST COVERS THE AREA N OF 28N W OF 68W. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH
IS LOCATED OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN
DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR 23N58W. THIS FEATURE IS DRIFTING W.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CIRCULATION INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N70W. FURTHER EAST SOME RIDGING ALOFT IS
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 48W AND
53W.

EAST ATLANTIC...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF 28N34W...NEARLY STATIONARY. THE CIRCULATION IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE
AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 28W AND 48W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS
THE TROPICS EAST OF ABOUT 35W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
34N43W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD.

$$
CAB


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