[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. THE POSITION OF THIS WAVE WAS ADJUSTED A BIT MORE TO THE
EAST OF THE 15/0000 UTC POSITION BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WAS JUST EAST
OF THIS WAVE SIX HOURS AGO REMAINS IN MORE OR LESS THE SAME
LOCATION. THERE IS NO ONE DEFINITIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WHICH
HAS BEEN ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE IN ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF
20N AND HAS BEEN MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 71W AND 76W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N12W 7N25W 6N31W 6N46W 6N49W 5N60W. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST
AND 4N5W 3N14W 10N20W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 19W AND
21W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN
29W AND 36W...FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 55W...
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
FROM 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO HAS WORKED ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
NOW IS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF TEXAS. IT STILL IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
FOR THE MOST PART. NO DEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT AT THIS MOMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD A BIT AND NOW COVERS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE STILL HAS
MUCH OF THE SAME ORIENTATION AS IT HAD WHEN T.S. ALBERTO WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF...NOW RUNNING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ONE CELL OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N87W 22N91W 18N94W. THESE CLOUDS ARE
PART OF THE BAND OF MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NOW AT THE
PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A WIDER
SWATH OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IS NORTH OF 24N EAST OF
85W...MOVING FROM THE EASTERN GULF WATERS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CLOUDS IN THIS AREA ARE THINNING
OUT WITH TIME. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE GULF
OF MEXICO-TO-WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE COVERS THE AREA NORTH
OF 25N WEST OF 55W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 50W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 16N79W...ABOUT
120 NM SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THIS LOW CENTER IS PART OF
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY
WESTWARD DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS OR SO. A LOW CENTER HAD BEEN
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY A FEW DAYS AGO...AND A TROUGH WAS
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA YESTERDAY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA SOUTHWESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA AS THE
16N79W LOW CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE FOUND NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 79W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A 22N57W LOW CENTER TO
19N60W TO 18N68W TO THE 16N79W LOW CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS
TROUGH. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE NEAR THE 22N57W ATLANTIC OCEAN
LOW CENTER...FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 58W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N
BETWEEN 64W AND 76W. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF NICARAGUA SIX HOURS AGO HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 29N35W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 21N TO
35N BETWEEN 28W AND 50W. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 29N35W LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 31N23W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 20W WITH A LOW
CENTER WEST OF PORTUGAL. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 38N32W TO
A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N46W TO 29N58W TO 27N72W
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF
17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST.

$$
MT



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