[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE ITCZ FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N AND HAS BEEN
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND
76W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N12W 8N26W 8N30W 10N44W 8N47W 4N57W. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND
4N8W 4N12W 7N16W 10N19W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 18W AND
21W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SIX HOURS AGO FROM 10N TO
15N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 22W HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N25W 10N28W 8N32W 5N35W. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 1N TO 3N
BETWEEN 47W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 55W...
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
FROM 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO HAS WORKED ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
NOW IS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. IT STILL IS SURROUNDED BY
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FOR THE MOST PART. NO DEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS MOMENT.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
A BIT AND NOW COVERS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE STILL HAS MUCH OF THE
SAME ORIENTATION AS IT HAD WHEN T.S. ALBERTO WAS MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN GULF...NOW RUNNING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN OCCURRING FROM JUST
EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SIX HOURS AGO. THIS PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN WEAKENING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 26N87W 22N91W 18N94W. THESE CLOUDS ARE PART OF
THE BAND OF MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NOW AT THE PERIPHERY
OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH HAS SHIFTED
WESTWARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A WIDER SWATH OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IS NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 85W...
MOVING FROM THE EASTERN GULF WATERS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CLOUDS IN THIS AREA ARE
THINNING OUT WITH TIME. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO-TO-WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE
COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 55W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 50W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 16N79W...ABOUT 120 NM
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THIS LOW CENTER IS PART OF A BROADER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY WESTWARD DURING
THE LAST 48 HOURS OR SO. A LOW CENTER HAD BEEN SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY A FEW DAYS AGO...AND A TROUGH WAS IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA YESTERDAY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA
SOUTHWESTWARD. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA AS THE 16N79W LOW CENTER HAS BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE FOUND NORTH
OF 16N WEST OF 75W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES
FROM A 23N57W LOW CENTER TO 19N60W TO 18N68W TO THE 16N79W LOW
CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS TROUGH. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE NEAR
THE 23N57W ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW CENTER...FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN
45W AND 58W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 76W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CELLS ARE FOUND FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN
81W AND 83W...POSSIBLY WITH THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN A LINE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND THE ISLANDS EAST OF NICARAGUA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 29N35W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 21N TO
35N BETWEEN 28W AND 50W. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 29N35W LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 31N23W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 20W WITH A LOW
CENTER WEST OF PORTUGAL. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 38N32W TO
A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N46W TO 30N64W TO 27N72W
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N83W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF
17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST.

$$
MT


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