[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO AT 14/1500 UTC IS IN
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35.0N 79.5W. ALBERTO IS MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 20 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ON ALBERTO. FOR DETAILS AND WARNINGS PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC...OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A RATHER
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE FROM 2N-13N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST NEAR 20
KT. SIMILARITY TO THE WAVE TO ITS EAST...THIS WAVE ALSO REMAINS
WELL-DEFINED WITH BROAD ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN
38W-45W. THIS WAVE MAY BE EXTENDED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE N ON
THE 18 UTC ANALYSIS TO ACCOUNT FOR ROTATING CLOUDS N OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR AS ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAY BUT IT STILL DOES SHOW SOME SIGNATURE. THE RAIN SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY COVERS 15N-19N BETWEEN
69W-74W. SOME OF THE SHOWERS IN THIS AREA ARE BECOMING MORE
CONVECTIVE THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A FEW BUOY AND SHIP
OBS HAVE SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W SOUTH OF 14N. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED
INTO THE EAST PACIFIC AND IS POSSIBLY AIDING IN GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE EAST PACIFIC.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N24W 7N34W 9N44W 5N60W.
BESIDES FOR THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
TO MOVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST E OF 17W FROM 4N-16N. AT THIS
POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF THIS CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS COVERS THE EXTREME
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO WITH RIDGING COVERING THE W GULF WITH
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THIS REGION EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME
NW CORNER. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF IS IN THIS
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGHS. A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS FLOWING
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND
STREAMING INTO THE NE GULF AND FED INTO THE TRANSITIONING
EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE. THE MOST NOTABLE ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF TO FLORIDA FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 81W-86W. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS IS IN THE NW GULF...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 92W-98W. AT THE SFC...
A TROUGH IS DRAPED FROM T.D. ALBERTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO 24N93W. THIS TROUGH HAS LIMITED MOISTURE NEAR THE
AXIS BUT DOES HAVE A VERY NOTABLE WIND SHIFT LEFT BEHIND BY
ALBERTO. MUCH OF THE E GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REGION N OF 15N W OF
75W.  A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED TO ALONG 70W ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 69W-74W. OVERCAST LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEN ON PUERTO RICO DOPPLER RADAR
EXTENDS WELL BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 300 NM OR SO. CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ON THE S PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
SOME OF THIS MOISTURE THEN TURNS N/NEWARD ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED IN TERMS OF ITS SHOWER ACTIVITY
BUT IT WILL PUSH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH IT AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS
ARE NEAR 20 KT ACROSS THE SEA...THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THE WINDS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A GENERAL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN COVERS THE
ATLANTIC BASIN SOUTH OF 32N. AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
BAHAMAS HAS RIDGING EXTENDING NEWARD TO 32N60W. BROAD
ILL-DEFINED TROUGHING LIES TO THE E OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH TWO
UPPER LOWS EMBEDDED IN THIS VAGUE TROUGH. ONE UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N55W. THIS LOW IS GENERATING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. A BROAD WEAKER
UPPER LOW LIES FURTHER TO THE NE NEAR 29N35W. BROAD RIDGING
COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SE OF THE TROUGH TO ITS WEST NAMELY
E OF 40W S OF 25. A LARGE UPPER LOW LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA NEAR 37N13W WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE NE CORNER
OF THE AREA N OF 26N E OF OF 23W. NONE OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES ARE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCERS OR HAVE A
WELL-DEFINED SFC REFLECTION IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT THE
SFC...A DOMINATING 1031 MB AZORES HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N38W
CONTAINS RIDGING THAT COVERS NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN N
OF 15N. QUIET WEATHER LIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRES
EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES
AND THE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR
24N55W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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