[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 140859
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
500 AM EDT WED JUN 14 2006

DOPPLER VELOCITIES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS AND CMAN STATIONS OFF
THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. HENCE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AND ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS IN ANTICIPATION OF ALBERTO'S
RE-STRENGTHENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

ALBERTO HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 040/18. A DEEP-LAYER LAYER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD HELP THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST. ALBERTO IS QUICKLY LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
NEXT 6-12 HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION FORECAST ONCE THE
SYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST IN THE EARLY PERIODS. THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS IS
A BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS.


FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0900Z 33.5N  81.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 35.7N  77.7W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 38.5N  72.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 41.0N  65.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 44.5N  57.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 52.0N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 57.0N  22.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     19/0600Z 60.0N  13.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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