[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132356 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION ...AMENDED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOCATION...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR
31.3N 82.8W OR ABOUT 22 NM SW OF ALMA GEORGIA AT 14/0000 UTC
MOVING NE AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1000 MB WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO IS OVER LAND IT STILL
POSSESSES A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...IT LACKS
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. RAINBANDS WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA N OF 28N E OF 87W TO OVER THE SE
US. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE E US
COAST.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. STRONG WAVE
IS WELL DEFINED IN THE MID LEVEL CURVATURE ROTATION WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT.
STRONG...WELL DEFINED WAVE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CURVATURE
ROTATION. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE LACKS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
BUT DOES HAVE ABUNDANT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
WELL-DEFINED IN THE MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 60W-68W INCLUDING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 60W-70W AND S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA FROM 60W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 15 KT. WAVE
IS NOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.
WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OR SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
CARIBBEAN.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 7N30W 9N37W 6N41W 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 14W-20W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 26W-30W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 10W-40W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
40W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FRO TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO. DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE W GULF TO
A BASE NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT THE SURFACE...A RAPIDLY
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN EQUALLY WEAKENING 1010 MB
LOW OVER SE ALABAMA/SW GEORGIA ALONG 30N86W 28N89W TO INLAND
OVER TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON. WITH THE DRY UPPER AIR AND THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO T.S. ALBERTO...THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ARE OVER E
TEXAS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT W OF 93W. AN UPPER HIGH OVER W
CUBA NEAR 22N82W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N89W AND NE INTO THE W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE
TO THE NW OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FEEDING A RATHER LARGE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS E OF A LINE FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W
TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
THIS MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED INTO T.S. ALBERTO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N82W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS AND CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N89W AND NE INTO THE
W ATLC GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN NE UPPER FLOW. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER E CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA
MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES...SEE ABOVE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES FOR THE ISLANDS AS WELL AS
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. MODERATE/STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N82W EXTENDS A RIDGE NE INTO
THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N72W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE NW OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FEEDING A RATHER LARGE BAND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM
CUBA NEAR 23N80W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO BEYOND
32N69W. THIS MOISTURE AND ACTIVITY IS FEEDING INTO T.S. ALBERTO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N IS DOMINATED BY A SERIES OF
UPPER TROUGHS/RIDGES. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS FROM 32N56W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N58W TO A BASE
NEAR PUERTO RICO. A SECOND LARGER UPPER LOW IS CENTERED TO THE E
NEAR 30N37W COVERING THE AREA N OF 22N FROM 31W-46W. A THIRD
UPPER LOW IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL DIPPING S TO OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 21W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO 75W.
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC WITH THE UPPER HIGH JUST
INLAND OVER AFRICA EXTENDING A RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO
SOUTH AMERICA/WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE IS SOMEWHAT DISTORTED
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE TWO STRONG TROPICAL WAVES IN
THE E ATLC.

$$
WALLACE



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