[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 132032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

ALTHOUGH OVER LAND...ALBERTO POSSESSES A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD
PATTERN.  DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED HOWEVER.  TROPICAL
STORM STATUS IS BEING RETAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY BECAUSE 34-KT
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST.  WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY LATER TONIGHT.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH
A LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE IN A DAY OR SO AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
HOUR 24.  DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT BAROCLINIC INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE NHC FORECAST.

SURFACE SYNOPTIC AND WSR-88D RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
MOTION IS 035/9.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD
KICK ALBERTO AND/OR THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...IN A DAY OR
SO.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THERE IS A THREAT OF FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/2100Z 30.7N  83.2W    35 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 32.4N  82.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 34.8N  78.7W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 37.7N  72.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 41.0N  66.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 48.5N  51.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     17/1800Z 53.0N  34.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     18/1800Z 54.5N  15.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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