[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
ALBERTO HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR ADAMS BEACH FLORIDA AROUND 12:30
PM EDT AND CONTINUES MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA OF
FLORIDA. ALBERTO IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 8 KT AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.  SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS
AND WARNINGS.  AFTER THE INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH YESTERDAY MORNING ALBERTO BECAME RATHER RAGGED LAST
NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL...ALBERTO
APPEARED TO BE TRYING TO DEVELOP A PARTIAL EYEWALL ON THE W SIDE
OF THE CIRCULATION. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS INLAND WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AND EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY WITHIN 24
HOURS. RAINFALL WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST CONCERNS WITH
ALBERTO. SOME OF THE MOST IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN A WIDE
FEEDER BAND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL DETACHED FROM THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION. THIS BAND EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER ALL OF GEORGIA EXCEPT
FOR THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
CAROLINA EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE....AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 12 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 20W/21W
SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED
WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 7N. THIS FEATURE IS
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN
14W-27W. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
INITIALIZATION OF THIS WAVE AND TRACK IT TO THE WNW NEAR 15 KT
AS A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE OR POSSIBLY A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED AHEAD NEAR 37W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WEST NEAR 15 KT BASED UPON A 09 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING A
SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
WELL-DEFINED WITH BROAD CURVATURE AND AN INVERTED V-PATTERN
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS LIE FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 32W-44W.

ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED RATHER LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED
AHEAD ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE
IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND
TOMORROW PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A MODERATE TO STRONG
SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. THIS WAVE DOES NOT HAVE MUCH SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N27W 9N35W 4N45W 9N60W.
BESIDES FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...THERE IS
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO CONTINUES TO GRAB ALL THE HEADLINES. A
WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS STREAMING FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH/CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON THE SE SIDE OF ALBERTO'S CIRCULATION. FOR MORE
INFORMATION REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. AN UPPER HIGH
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NW MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT
FLOW IS GENERATING PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL
GULF. AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SWARD INTO THE N
PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. A
1015 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE E GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS ALBERTO'S
MOVES NE OF THE AREA. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP IN THE
CENTRAL GULF TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO NEAR 32N68W. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ON THE W
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ADVECTED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
RATHER STRONG TROPICAL WAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS ENTERED
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 60W-70W. THIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING TOWARDS
THE GREATER ANTILLES. HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE ISLANDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 18N W OF 71W BUT
THIS AREA WILL BE MOISTENING AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
TRACK WESTWARD. TRADE WINDS ARE GENERALLY NEAR 15-25 KT. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE TROPICAL
WAVE. MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS A CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN
COVERS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. NOT ANY ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DEEP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...OR ANY
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE FOR THAT MATTER. THE WESTERN-MOST
RIDGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED JUST S OF CUBA
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NEWARD TO 32N68W. A NARROW TROUGH LIES
JUST TO THE E OF THE RIDGE WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
32N57W 19N68W. THERE IS A SLIGHT HINT OF BROAD RIDGING TO THE E
OF THIS TROUGH WITH A WEAK UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 16N48W. THE
NEXT TROUGH RUNS FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR
31N38W SWWARD TO 22N43W. BROAD RIDGING LIES TO THE E OF 38W S OF
26N. AN UPPER TROUGH CLIPS THE NE PART OF THE AREA N OF 26N E OF
30W. AT THE SURFACE...A DOMINATING 1032 MB AZORES HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 38N32W COVERS NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN PRODUCING
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVES AND ITCZ CONVECTION. THIS LARGE DOMINATING HIGH WILL
REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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