[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO AT 13/0900 UTC IS NEAR
29.2N 84.2W OR 50 NM/95 KM SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...
AND ABOUT 55 NM/105 KM WEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY ALREADY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALBERTO IS
MOVING NORTHEAST 8 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
LANDFALL NEAR MIDDAY TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 995 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ALBERTO WILL BECOME
A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS DECREASING...ALTHOUGH SOME
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR RE-STRENGTHENING. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND STILL POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA ARE FOUND NOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
STORM CENTER FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. THIS IS THE
ONLY CLOUDY AREA WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE STORM CENTER TO THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. EVERYTHING WEST OF THAT LINE IS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND NO OTHER PRECIPITATION. ONLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND WEST
OF THE LINE FROM ALBERTO TO THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE LINE 28N83W-21N90W
AT THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO
9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA
AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH TODAY.  STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 36W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST
15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W.
THIS WAVE SHOULD ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY 1200 UTC
TODAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A MODERATE TO STRONG SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 82W AND 83W RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA.

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N13W 6N22W 6N30W 5N36W 5N44W 9N57W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W
AND 22W...PROBABLY WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...AND FROM 3N TO
8N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND
14W...AND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 38W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WEST OF ALBERTO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 28N77W BEYOND 32N74W. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF
65W...AND PRETTY MUCH ALL THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...NEAR THE TROPICAL
WAVES AND THE ITCZ...IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE 59W/60W TROPICAL WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 83W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM EAST TO
WEST WITH THE 59W/60W TROPICAL WAVE...ONCE IT FINALLY ENTERS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PROBABLY WITH THE 13/1200 UTC MAP.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF 60W. NOT ANY ONE OF THESE
FEATURES IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DEEP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...OR ANY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE FOR THAT MATTER.
THE FIRST TROUGH IS ALONG 31N57W TO 26N61W TO 21N67W. THE NEXT
TROUGH RUNS FROM 33N38W TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
NEAR 30N40W TO 22N43W. THE LAST TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE MADEIRAS ISLANDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO 26N15W NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MOROCCO. THE RIDGE WHICH IS
IN BETWEEN THE 30N40W LOW CENTER AND THE MADEIRAS-TO-CANARY
ISLANDS TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
23N28W TO 32N31W. THE RIDGE WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE 31N57W
21N67W TROUGH AND THE 30N40W LOW CENTER IS A BROAD RIDGE AND
NOT ALL THAT WELL-DEFINED. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM AN AZORES
1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 39N33W THROUGH 32N46W TO
29N61W TO 29N72W THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N81W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST.

$$
MT


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