[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 130626
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS 28.4N 84.6W...OR ABOUT
85 NM/150 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT
90 NM/165 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. ALBERTO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 995 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A HURRICANE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT
KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FELT ALONG THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST FROM VENICE NORTHWARD TO APALACHEE BAY. HIGH LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND STILL POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IN
THE AREA ARE FOUND NOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM CENTER FROM
27N TO 30N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. THAT AREA OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION IS THE ONLY SUCH AREA WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE
STORM CENTER TO THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. EVERYTHING
WEST OF THAT LINE IS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND NO OTHER
PRECIPITATION. ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE FOUND WEST OF THE LINE FROM ALBERTO TO THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
EAST OF THE LINE 28N83W-21N90W AT THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND FROM
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA. TIDE LEVELS
IN THE WARNING AREAS ARE ALREADY RUNNING MORE THAN 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 38W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST
15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODERATE TO STRONG SURGE IN
THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...ALREADY DISSIPATED
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...WERE FOUND FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N14W 7N20W 8N29W 5N40W 5N46W 9N55W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
8N TO 12N BETWEEN 15W AND 19W...PROBABLY WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 3N5W 3N10W 5N12W...AND 3N15W 3N18W 5N20W 5N22W...FROM 6N
TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 23W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W...
AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.
A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS AWAY FROM THE STORM...TO THE
SOUTHWEST...FROM 25N86W TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WEST OF ALBERTO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 28N77W BEYOND 32N74W. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF
65W...AND PRETTY MUCH ALL THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...NEAR THE TROPICAL
WAVES AND THE ITCZ...IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE 56W/57W TROPICAL WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 83W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM EAST TO
WEST WITH THE 56W/57W TROPICAL WAVE...ONCE IT FINALLY ENTERS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PROBABLY AFTER 13/1200 UTC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF 60W. NOT ANY ONE OF THESE
FEATURES IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DEEP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...OR ANY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE FOR THAT MATTER.
THE FIRST TROUGH IS ALONG 31N57W TO 26N61W TO 21N67W. THE NEXT
TROUGH RUNS FROM 33N38W TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
NEAR 30N40W TO 22N43W. THE LAST TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE MADEIRAS ISLANDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO 26N15W NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MOROCCO. THE RIDGE WHICH IS
IN BETWEEN THE 30N40W LOW CENTER AND THE MADEIRAS-TO-CANARY
ISLANDS TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
23N28W TO 32N31W. THE RIDGE WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE 31N57W
21N67W TROUGH AND THE 30N40W LOW CENTER IS A BROAD RIDGE AND
NOT ALL THAT WELL-DEFINED. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM AN AZORES
1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 39N33W THROUGH 32N46W TO
29N61W TO 29N72W THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N81W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST.

$$
MT




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