[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
ALBERTO CONTINUES HEADED FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE
CENTER OF THIS TROPICAL STORM IS NEAR 27.9N 85.1W AT 12/2100Z...
OR ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. IT IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND ARE NEAR 60 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AFTER THE SUDDEN
STRENGTHENING EPISODE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY...THE STORM HAS
LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY. THE AMOUNT AND INTENSITY OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
RATHER ELONGATED. ALSO...THE STORM HAS LEFT THE AREA OF HIGHEST
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. NONETHELESS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE AND ALBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
THE MAIN HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE THE
HEAVY RAINS AND THE STORM SURGE FLOODING... WHICH COULD BE 8-10
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 11N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT...BUT
LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE WAVE IS PROBABLY
FURTHER WEST NEAR 30W. THIS WAVE MAY BE RELOCATED IN THE NEXT
SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FOUND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE WHICH ALSO SHOWS AN INVERTED V
CLOUD PATTERN.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 14N. THIS WAVE REMAINS FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED WITH AN INVERTED V-PATTERN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEAR 20 KT.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO E
CARIBBEAN LATE TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. A MODERATE TO STRONG SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE OVER PANAMA.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 6N25W 5N35W 7N52W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FOUND FROM 2.5N-11N
EAST OF 20W PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 21W-25W...WITHIN 80-100 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 40W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE EASTERN GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO THAT IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES. STORMY WEATHER
AND THE STROM SURGE WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA...PARTICULARLY
THE NORTHERN PORTION WHERE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY
TUESDAY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF AND THE STATE OF
FLORIDA. A FEEDER BAND IS STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE SE SECTOR OF THE
GULF. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT LIES TO THE WEST OF ALBERTO'S CENTER
ACROSS THE W GULF AND OVER MEXICO GENERATING BY AN UPPER HIGH
LOCATED OVER NW MEXICO. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO SOUTH MEXICO. THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE EAST GULF WILL
DEPEND UPON THE MOTION AND SPEED OF ALBERTO. FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST WEST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 20N81W WITH UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING ALSO THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS RIDGE IS GENERATING A
SUBSIDENT PATTERN OVER THE REGION THAT IS TO LIMIT ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY A OCCASIONAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
FLARE-UP OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW IS LEADING TO A CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
OCCASIONAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM FLARE-UPS. A WELL-DEFINED
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 56W WILL INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW SPREADING TOWARDS PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY AND OVER HISPANIOLA ON
THURSDAY. TRADES WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A CENTRAL ATLC SFC RIDGE REMAINS PARKED IN
THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. UPPER RIDGING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE IN
THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 65W. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
IS STREAMING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A NARROW
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N38W THEN CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N42W TO THE TROPICS NEAR
16N53W. BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY
FRONT LIES ALONG 31N19W 28N27W. A BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS LIE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NEARLY
THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1031
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N34W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING 20 KT
TRADE WINDS IN THE TROPICS.

$$
GR



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