[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS RELOCATED NEAR 27.1N
85.9W AT 12/1500Z. IT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 6 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS LOWERED TO 997 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALBERTO HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING AND
IS NEARING HURRICANE INTENSITY DESPITE THE MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT. THIS INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY PARTIALLY
CONTRIBUTED TO THE HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OF THE LOOP CURRENT
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALBERTO REMAINS HIGHLY SHEARED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITH ALL OF ITS CONVECTION AND
STRONGEST WINDS CONSTRICTED TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM
CIRCULATION. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE IN THE E GULF AND OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA CURRENTLY FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 81W-85W. VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT IS IMPINGING ON THE W SIDE OF THE STORM. COMPUTER
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY TRACKING ALBERTO TO THE NE
TOWARDS THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING
OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND
TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO. ALSO ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 11N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A
BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE AXIS BUT
THE BRUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL AHEAD OF THE WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED AHEAD ALONG 53W/54W S OF 14N BASED
UPON THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS. THIS
WAVE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED WITH AN INVERTED V-PATTERN
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY NEAR 20 KT AND COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE BRINGING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
TOMORROW AND TO THE GREATER ANTILLES LATE WED/THURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND THE TAIL MOISTURE OF ALBERTO N FROM
10N-20N BETWEEN 79W-85W.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 6N25W 5N37W 6N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 28W-43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CURRENTLY LIE
FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 52W-56W ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 53W/54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF 17W FROM 3N-12N. THIS
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OFF THE
COAST. MODELS HAVE THIS WAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL. THIS WAVE
WILL BE INTRODUCED IN THE 18Z OR 00Z SFC ANALYSIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES. STORMY
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS PERSISTING IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER
FLORIDA ON THE MOIST E SIDE OF THE STORM CIRCULATION. THE
HEAVIEST MOST ORGANIZED BANDS CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM 27N-30N
BETWEEN 82W-85W MOVING NEWARD WITH THE STORM'S FORWARD MOTION. A
TAIL OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN RACING ACROSS
THE S GULF. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT LIES TO THE WEST OF ALBERTO'S
CENTER ACROSS THE W GULF AND OVER MEXICO GENERATING BY UPPER
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER
NW MEXICO AND A WEAKENING UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN.
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE EAST GULF WILL
DEPEND UPON THE MOTION AND SPEED OF ALBERTO. FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST WEST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 21N81W WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
AROUND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IN THE W CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE
IS DRYING ON THE S EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT
FLOW IS LEADING TO A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH OCCASIONAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
FLARE-UPS. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 53W/54W
WILL INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW
SPREADING TOWARDS THE GREATER ANTILLES WED/THU. TRADES WINDS ARE
NEAR 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
CENTRAL ATLC SFC RIDGE REMAINS PARKED IN THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. UPPER RIDGING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE IN
THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 60W. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
IS STREAMING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A NARROW
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 34N38W THEN CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N42W TO THE TROPICS NEAR
16N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
UPPER LOW CENTER AND WITHIN 180 NM SE OF A LINE ALONG 14N58W
20N44W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E
OF 35W S OF 29N. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW LIES TO THE N
OF THE AREA IN IN THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 35N20W. AT THE
SFC...AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLIPS THE AREA ALONG 32N20W
28N28N. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS LIE WITHIN 120 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
37N36W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING 20 KT TRADE WINDS IN THE
TROPICS.

$$
CANGIALOSI


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net