[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS NEAR 26.7N 87.0W AT
12/1200Z. IT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE EAST OF THE STORM
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF 29N92W 25N95W 21N94W ARE SWIRLING IN A CYCLONIC
SENSE AROUND THE CENTER OF ALBERTO. ALL THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AROUND T.S. ALBERTO ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ANTICYCLONIC
EAST OF 30N86W 28N88W 25N89W 23N92W 21N91W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
-72C TO -82C...AND CLOUD TOPS REACHING 50000 FEET ARE FOUND FROM
25N TO 29N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. OTHER AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
ARE EAST OF THE 30N86W 21N91W LINE. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS
JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
JUST SOUTH OF THE STORM CENTER. NO SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED
IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
EVERYWHERE WEST OF THE 30N86W 21N91W LINE. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND 28W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST
15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE WAVE ARE CUTTING
ACROSS THE WAVE...WEAKENING THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENTS FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/79W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N77W 12N79W 15N82W.

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N15W 8N18W 8N22W 7N26W 4N33W 6N40W 7N44W 7N47W.
THE BIG BALL OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SIX HOURS AGO NOW IS SEEN AS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W IN PARTS OF LIBERIA/SIERRA
LEONE/GUINEA. THIS PRECIPITATION EASILY MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WHICH STILL IS INLAND. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 11W. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 1N TO 6N
BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN
20W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES.
THE GULF EAST OF 90W IS COVERED BY RAIN AND CLOUDS AND
THE PRESENCE OF THE STORM. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS THE GULF TO THE WEST OF T.S. ALBERTO. THE FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF WILL
DEPEND UPON THE MOTION AND SPEED OF T.S. ALBERTO. FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER IS LIKELY WEST OF T.S. ALBERTO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 20N84W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS SOUTH OF 16N
EAST OF 80W...AND IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT
FLOW IS LEADING TO A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH OCCASIONAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM FLARE-UPS
OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ALONG 50W/51W WILL INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATE TUESDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THURSDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC BASIN. UPPER RIDGING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 60W. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
IS BEING MOVED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A NARROW
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 34N39W THEN CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N41W TO THE TROPICS NEAR
16N54W.  ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 29N TO 30N
BETWEEN 41W AND 42W. THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO WAS
NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD FOR THIS MAP ANALYSIS
TIME. A SURFACE BERMUDA-TO-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
37N37W. THIS SYSTEM DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA...PRODUCING TRADE
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT IN THE TROPICS.

$$
MT


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