[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS NEAR 25.4N 87.7W AT
12/0600Z. IT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE EAST OF THE STORM
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF 29N90W 25N94W 24N98W ARE SWIRLING IN A CYCLONIC
SENSE AROUND THE CENTER OF ALBERTO. ALL THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AROUND T.S. ALBERTO ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ANTICYCLONIC
EAST OF 30N86W 25N89W 20N92W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W...
AND IN ONE CELL FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W. OTHER
AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE 30N86W 20N92W LINE.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOUND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE LAST 4 HOURS. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
IN THIS AREA HAVE WARMED AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
WEAKENING. A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 12/0000 UTC. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS EVERYWHERE WEST OF THE 30N86W 20N92W LINE. T.S. ALBERTO IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO
20 INCHES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST
15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE POSITION WAS PUSHED WESTWARD A BIT AS
COMPARED TO ITS MOVEMENT FROM SIX HOURS EARLIER. THE 11/2130 UTC
QUIK-SCAT WIND DATA SUPPORTED THIS SLIGHT MORE WESTWARD POSITION.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CELLS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W
AND 45W AT 11/2030 UTC HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH THIS WAVE
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS WAVE FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN 48W AND
55W HAS BEEN SHEARED BY THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W.
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE.

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N15W 8N18W 8N22W 7N26W 4N33W 6N40W 7N44W 7N47W.
A BIG BALL OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MOVING
FROM WESTERN BURKINA FASO AND NORTHWESTERN GHANA AT 11/2030 UTC
TO COVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE IVORY COAST/SOUTHEASTERN
GUINEA AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF
LIBERIA AT 12/0500 UTC. THIS PRECIPITATION EASILY MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WHICH STILL IS INLAND.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN
THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 8W...SOME ARE ISOLATED STRONG. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN
32W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND 71W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES.
THE GULF EAST OF 90W IS COVERED BY RAIN AND CLOUDS AND
THE PRESENCE OF THE STORM. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS THE GULF TO THE WEST OF T.S. ALBERTO. THE FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF WILL
DEPEND UPON THE MOTION AND SPEED OF T.S. ALBERTO. FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER ARE PROBABLY LIKELY WEST OF T.S. ALBERTO FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 19N82W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EWD OVER MOST
OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN MAINLY SOUTH OF 15N AND ACROSS NORTHERN VENEZUELA.
UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW IS LEADING TO A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH OCCASIONAL DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM FLARE-UPS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. A WELL-DEFINED
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 48W/49W WILL INCREASE THE RAIN
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THURSDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC BASIN. UPPER RIDGING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 60W. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
IS BEING MOVED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A NARROW
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N42W THEN CONTINUES
SWARD TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N43W TO THE TROPICS NEAR 15N55W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 41W
AND 46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N44W 26N44W 22N47W.
A SURFACE BERMUDA-TO-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
37N37W. THIS SYSTEM DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA...PRODUCING
TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT IN THE TROPICS. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LIES ALONG 59W NORTH OF 20N.

$$
MT


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