[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
ALBERTO...THE FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE 2006 ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON...REMAINS DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO IS NEAR 24.5N 87.8W AT 11/2100 UTC...OR ABOUT 375
MILES...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 400 MILES...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ALBERTO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS
TROPICAL STORM ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED
WITH ITS LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED WELL DETACHED FROM THE MAIN
AREA OF CONVECTION DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE
MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL STORM IS HEAVY
RAINFALL. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL PRODUCING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER WESTERN CUBA. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE PASSED DAKAR YESTERDAY ACCORDING TO SOUNDING DATA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
IS A VERY WELL DEFINED WAVE FOR EARLY IN THE SEASON DEPICTED
WITH AN INVERTED V CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS WITHIN 45 NM OF 10N45W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A MODERATE TO STRONG SURGE IN THE TRADE
WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS PROBABLY ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER NW COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 73W-77W.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N30W 7N40W 6N50W 7N59W. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SOUTH
OF THE AXIS FROM 1.5N-5.5N BETWEEN 31W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO. A BAND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
AFFECTING THE GULF EAST OF 86W AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. BESIDES
ALBERTO...IS A MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF.  A WEAK SFC
TROUGH IS ALONG 24N96W 20N93W MARKED BY A LINE OF LOW-MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A WEAK WIND SHIFT. THE E AND CENTRAL GULF WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEPEND UPON THE MOTION AND
SPEED OF ALBERTO. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE IN THE W GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 19N82W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EWD OVER MOST
OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN MAINLY SOUTH OF 15N AND ACROSS NORTHERN VENEZUELA.
SOUTH AMERICA. UPPER CONFLUENCE IS LEADING TO A CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH OCCASIONAL
DIURNAL TSTM FLARE-UPS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO SEEN OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND GUATEMALA.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG
44W/45W WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC BASIN. UPPER RIDGING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE AREA W OF 60W. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A NARROW
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N42W THEN CONTINUES
SWARD TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N45W TO THE TROPICS NEAR 15N55W.
BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH S OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-45W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALSO IN THE AREA ALONG 44W-45W. AT THE SFC...THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 37N037W. THIS SYSTEM
DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA...PRODUCING 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE TROPICS. HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW TSTMS COVERS THE ATLC
WEST OF 75W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 59W NORTH OF 20N.
THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITHIN AROUND 100 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

$$
GR


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