[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111723
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE FIRST NAMED
STORM OF THE 2006 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO BASED UPON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SHIP REPORTS. THE BROAD
CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS NEAR 23.9N 88.1W AT
11/1500 UTC...OR ABOUT 400 MILES W OF KEY WEST...MOVING NW 8 KT
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT GUSTING TO 50 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DESPITE ALBERTO
INCREASING IN STRENGTH...THE SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER POORLY
ORGANIZED WITH ITS LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED WELL DETACHED FROM
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION. THIS SHEARED SYSTEM HAS NEARLY ALL
OF ITS PRECIP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT IMPINGING ON THE W SIDE. SOME OF THESE BANDS HAVE BECOME
MORE CONVECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE OUTER BANDS SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
SUGGESTING A TRACK TO THE N/NW AND THEN A TURN TOWARDS THE NE AS
THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE A FEW MODELS THAT DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF DUE TO
THE STRONG SHEAR. DUE TO THE CURRENT UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT AND BECAUSE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALBERTO IS NOT LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN MUCH FURTHER. IN ANY EVENT...THE MAIN HAZARD
ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTO IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS STORM IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF
30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
PASSED DAKAR YESTERDAY ACCORDING TO SOUNDING DATA. RATHER BROAD
LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 15N MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT.  THIS WAVE STILL DOES HAVE A V-PATTERN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 44W-52W. A FEW COMPUTER MODELS
HAVE THE WAVE SOMEWHAT INITIALIZED AND CARRY IT QUICKLY WESTWARD
POSSIBLY ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE E CARIBBEAN IN A FEW
DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND HAS BECOME VERY DIFFICULT
TO LOCATE. THE WAVE POSITION IS BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF THE
FORWARD MOTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  WAVE IS
PROBABLY ASSISTING IN GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 79W-83W.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 6N28W 4N33W 7N43W 6N50W
7N59W. BESIDES FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...THERE IS AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 29W-35W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF 3W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WEATHER IS CONTROLLED BY
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WIDESPREAD IN THE E GULF AND OVER FLORIDA S OF 28N E OF 86.5W.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. THE
WESTERN PART OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THE AREA
W OF 92W RAIN FREE WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH IS ALONG 23N96W 19N92W MARKED BY A LINE OF LOW-MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A WEAK WIND SHIFT. MUCH OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTO WILL REMAIN TO THE E OF THE CENTER IN
THE E GULF AS IT TRACKS TO THE N/NE OVER TIME. THE E AND CENTRAL
GULF WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEPEND UPON THE
MOTION AND SPEED OF ALBERTO. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE IN THE W GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N81W WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING EASTWARD TO PUERTO RICO AND NWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. UPPER CONFLUENCE IS LEADING TO A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL DIURNAL
TSTM FLARE-UPS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER LIES
IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF 77W
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF ALBERTO'S MOISTURE. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA. A LARGE
WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 44W/45W WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES IN THE E CARIBBEAN BY TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC BASIN. UPPER RIDGING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE AREA W OF 60W. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE DRYING ON THE SWARD
EXTENSION. A NARROW MID-OCEANIC TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG
32N42W SWARD TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N44W TO THE TROPICS NEAR
15N55W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS IS GENERATING AN AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
SWIRLING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WHICH HAS A SFC REFLECTION AS A
TROUGH...WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT UP
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH A CENTER NEAR 20N26W...DISPLACED
NORTHWARD MORE TYPICAL OF A JULY-LIKE POSITION. AT THE
SFC...RIDGING DOMINATES THE PATTERN WITH A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 33N44W AND A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 37N38W. THE TAIL END OF A
STATIONARY FRONT CLIPS THE AREA ALONG 32N30W 30N35W. A LINE OF
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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