[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS NEAR 23.5N
87.0W AT 11/0900 UTC...OR ABOUT 335 MILES WSW OF KEY WEST...
MOVING NW 8 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT GUSTING TO
40 KT.  THE MOST RECENT NIGHT-VIS SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE
BEST CENTER IS W OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH IS SUBSTANTIATED
BY NEARBY BUOYS/SHIPS.  HOWEVER THERE STILL MAY BE MULTIPLE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION LIKE
YESTERDAY.  THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
BUOY 42003 RECENTLY REPORTED A 10 MIN MEAN WIND OF 30 KT GUSTING
TO 38 KT...AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WOULD GIVE IT
THE NAME ALBERTO.  HOWEVER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH SW WINDS ALOFT OVER
THE CENTER AS THE DEPRESSION HAS LEFT UPPER RIDGING IN THE
CARIBBEAN BEHIND.  A GENERAL NLY TRACK IS EXPECTED WITH SOME
QUESTION ON WHERE IT GOES AFTERWARD.  HOW MUCH INFLUENCE A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS ON THIS SYSTEM IS IN
DOUBT WITH SOME MODELS STILL TAKING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE W
COAST OF FLORIDA WHILE OTHERS DISSIPATING IT OVER THE GULF
BECAUSE OF STRONG SHEAR.   IN ANY EVENT...THE MAIN HAZARD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CUBA CAUSING DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.  THE SYSTEM COULD BE A BLESSING IN DISGUISE FOR SOME
RESIDENTS OF FLORIDA WHO HAVE BEEN SUFFERING FROM A DROUGHT AS
LONG AS IT DOESN'T INTENSIFY.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS ARE FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 80W-86W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 21W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THE
WAVE PASSED DAKAR YESTERDAY ACCORDING TO SOUNDING DATA.
SATELLITE INDICATES BROAD TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ALONG
WITH A NORTHWARD BULGE IN THE ITCZ.  ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-9N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 15N MOVING W 20 KT.  THIS IS A
WELL-DEFINED WAVE WITH SOMEWHAT OF A V-SHAPE IN BOTH THE LOW AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS PLUS PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 44W-50W.  INTERACTION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW SHOULD KEEP THE WAVE RELATIVELY
CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH LITTLE EFFECTS OVER WATER AND THE
POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  WAVE
IS PROBABLY ASSISTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
NW COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
74W-77W.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 5N32W 8N45W 6N58W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 32W-42W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
2N7W 8N20W 7N25W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF
AXIS BETWEEN 28W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BESIDES TD 1... THE OTHER WEATHER STORY IS A NARROW LOW/
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG ABOUT 28N
BRINGING MORE RECORD HEAT TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST.  CHANCES OF
RAIN ARE QUITE LOW FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTWARD UNDER
THAT STRONG RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.  SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF TD 1 BUT MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL LIKELY STAY OVER FLORIDA.  IN FACT SOME MODELS SUGGEST
MORE NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF COAST AS
THE LOW PASSES FLORIDA KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MOST
OF THE WEEK... THOUGH THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TONIGHT ABOUT THE POSSIBLE RECURVATURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
EITHER WAY THE NW GULF ISN'T LIKELY TO GET MUCH RAIN ANYTIME
SOON.  FARTHER S... MID/ UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF NEAR 27N86W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... MARKING THE LINE
BETWEEN MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE E GULF WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT IN THE REST OF THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 18N82W RIDGING EASTWARD ACROSS HAITI THEN
ALONG 20N IN THE ATLC BEYOND 60W.   A SMALL AREA OF UPPER
TROUGHING LIES IN THE FAR SE WINDWARD ISLANDS OTHERWISE ELY
WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE THE AREA.  UPPER CONVERGENCE IS LEADING TO
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY A
OCCASIONAL DIURNAL TSTM FLARE-UP OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A
TAIL OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
LINGER FROM W CUBA TO YUCATAN WITH SHOWER CHANCES SLOWLY GOING
DOWN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF BELIZE.  NO BIG CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A LARGE WAVE...
CURRENTLY AROUND 43W... APPROACHES THE E CARIBBEAN FOR TUE.  THE
GFS FORECASTS THE ENTIRE LESSER ANTILLES TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TUE INTO WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W PART OF THE AREA
WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW TSTMS W OF ANDROS ISLAND.  SMALL
UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 32N60WE TO 27N63W HELPING TO FIRE A FEW
TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.  THIS TROUGH SHOULD
DIG SOUTHWARD AND FORM THE NEXT FORM OF THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH.
CURRENTLY A LARGE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IS SITTING FROM 31N41W
15N51W THEN INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR THE GRENADINES WITH A
NORTHWARD-MOVING MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 26N46W ALONG THE TROUGH.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTROLS MUCH OF THE REGION WITHIN
ABOUT 300 NM OF THE TROUGH EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER... WHICH HAS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH REFLECTION.  IN THE E ATLC.. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT UP
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH A CENTER NEAR 20N25W... DISPLACED
NORTHWARD MORE TYPICAL OF A JULY-LIKE POSITION.  RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS TO 16N35W 9N40W INTO A SMALL HIGH NEAR 7N48W W TO
8N60W.  TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS DECK DOTS THE CENTRAL/E ATLC WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN CONTROL.. STILL A LITTLE WEAKER THAN
AVERAGE.  COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT FEW
WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG WITH A MUCH FARTHER NORTHWARD EXTENT
THAN THE RECENT ONES CONFINED TO S AMERICA.

$$
BLAKE

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