[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 110231
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
1100 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

DESPITE THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE FACT THAT THE AIR
FORCE PLANE CREW COULD NOT MAKE A CENTER FIX...THERE WAS A BAND OF
40 TO 45-KNOT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION. THESE WINDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW TRANSIENT
CONVECTIVE BANDS. SINCE THEN...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IMPROVEMENT IN
ORGANIZATION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED. THEREFORE...THE
SYSTEM IS KEPT AS A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION. THERE IS STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF THE CYCLONE.
BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND IS MOVING OVER A
REGION OF WARM OCEAN...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT ANY TIME. ANOTHER PLANE  IS
SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE SYSTEM EARLY SUNDAY.

THE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...AND THIS MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. IN
24 HOURS OR SO...AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY KICK THE
SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA. THEREAFTER...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE.

THIS FORECAST SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WEST COAST
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/0300Z 23.4N  86.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 24.6N  86.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N  86.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 28.0N  85.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 29.5N  83.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 33.5N  77.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 39.5N  70.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     16/0000Z 48.5N  57.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net