[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 102046 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS NEAR 21.7N 85.6W AT
10/1800 UTC...OR ABOUT 40 NM/75 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN
ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES 10 KT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATER TODAY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 1003 MB. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AFOS/AWIPS HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION
IS HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.  GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND HAS REPORTED 22.72 INCHES OF RAIN
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS... AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO
10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
WESTERN FLORIDA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST
15 TO 20 KT.  THIS IS A LARGE WELL-DEFINED WAVE WITH A V-SHAPE
IN BOTH THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE...FROM EARLIER
AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 57W AND 65W...
HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.
POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS WHOLE AREA OF THE
SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT...IN PARTS OF VENEZUELA...BRAZIL AND
GUYANA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. WAVE IS FAIRLY LOW-LATITUDE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
OVER WATER. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN CENTRAL
COLOMBIA HAVE WARMED DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 HOURS. THE ITCZ
IS PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA ALSO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS WAVE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...IN BETWEEN THE 73W TROPICAL
WAVE AND THIS WAVE.

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N14W 6N20W 6N26W 7N33W 7N38W 6N48W 7N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N
BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRETTY
SPARSE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...SURROUNDED COMPLETELY BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH
OF 26N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THE TEXAS
COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 30N80W 26N85W 22N88W. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING SPREAD
IN ALL DIRECTIONS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 30N80W 22N88W LINE.
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL
REMAIN IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA...JUST BARELY ENTERING THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE CUBA COAST SINCE
10/1245 UTC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES AS IT
IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NOW...AND IT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...AND FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 86W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING FOR MEXICO AND BELIZE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE WEST OF A
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...AS SEEN IN THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND
79W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COMING OFF
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE REST OF THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS COMING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED WELL OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...
AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH NOW COVERS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
FRONT ARE NORTH OF 30N. THE TROUGH AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY RUNS FROM 27N66W BEYOND 32N64W RIGHT BY BERMUDA.
A CLEARLY DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR
25N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED ALONG 43W/44W FROM 22N TO
27N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN
43W AND 47W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AWAY FROM THE TROUGH NORTH OF 17N.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS BEING STEERED IN BETWEEN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE DEEPER THAT THE 25N45W LOW
BECOMES THE GREATER IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS ROUGHLY
ALONG 27W...FROM A 19N27W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

$$
MT




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