[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091703
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. A SLIGHT
INVERTED V-PATTERN IS EVIDENT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT AS WELL-DEFINED AS YESTERDAY. THIS
WAVE HAS FAIR CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THERE ARE NO AREAS
OF DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED. GFS HAS THE WAVE
SOMEWHAT INITIALIZED AND CARRIES IT QUICKLY WWARD AS A FAIRLY
WEAK FEATURE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. LITTLE...IF ANY WAVE SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AND IS
DISCUSSED IN THAT SECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND HAS BECOME VERY CHALLENGING TO
TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. NO WAVE SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE IS ACROSS THE EPAC AND CUTS
ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THIS
WAVE HAS SOME SIGNATURE ESPECIALLY S OF PANAMA.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N23W 5N40W 6N54W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION LIES FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 15W-19W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS W OF 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA E OF 4W N OF 1N TO INLAND OVER AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED TO THE NE NOW COVERING ONLY THE
NE SECTOR. UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER
S MEXICO NWARD TO TEXAS. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING EWARD INTO
THE W GULF. ESSENTIALLY...THIS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN IS
GENERATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE SFC...A WEAK DISSIPATING TROUGH LIES FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA SWWARD TO 24N87W. THIS TROUGH IS MARKED BY A
NARROW THIN BAND OF CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W. MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS. THE DRY
WEATHER IN THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS MAY COME TO AN END
FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF THIS WEEKEND AS A SLOWLY DEVELOPING
SYSTEM IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVES NWARD DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO THE E/CENTRAL GULF. THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO THE FIRST
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN WEATHER INTEREST IN THIS AREA IS A 1006 MB LOW IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N86W. THIS LOW SITS ON A SLOW
MOVING SFC TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO HONDURAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN
78W-87W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN IN THIS REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BUT TODAY THERE IS MORE ORGANIZATION TO THE ACTIVITY.
THIS BROAD/ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
DEVELOPING WITH BUOY OBS REPORTING 15-20 KT WINDS AROUND THE LOW
CENTER. IN ADDITION...COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BECOME IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SLOWLY STRENGTHENING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MIGRATES NWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE
E CARIBBEAN...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
GENERATED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NE OF PUERTO RICO. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE E CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AS A CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SFC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE UPPER HIGH NEARLY
STATIONARY. THE NW CARIBBEAN WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS THE
SFC TROUGH AND LOW MOVE NWD OR NNWARD THIS WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN EXTENDS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC BASIN. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PULLING NWARD IN THE
EXTREME W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 73W. A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER HIGH
IS LOCATED TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 22N65W. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...SWLY FLOW IS ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC WITHIN 360 NM SE OF A LINE
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEWARD TO 32N69W. FARTHER EAST...A
LARGE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N44W WITH
ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 38W-54W N OF
14N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS COVERED BY A BROAD UPPER
HIGH ALONG THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 18N17W. AT THE SFC...A
SPRAWLING 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N47W DOMINATES THE SFC PRES
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. THE ONLY FEATURE
CONTAMINATING THE SPRAWLING SFC RIDGE IS A RATHER ILL-DEFINED
SFC REFLECTION AS A TROUGH OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW. THIS TROUGH
IS ALONG 28N43W 24N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SPIRALING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC N OF THE ITCZ'S
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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