[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED ALONG 25W/26W S OF 11N BASED ON
QUICK SCAT DATA. BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 9N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE
IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO WAVE CURVATURE
SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 11N MOVING 5-10 KT. WAVE
REMAINS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH WEAK WAVE CURVATURE
SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS WELL INLAND OVER VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 13N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE
IS MOSTLY OVER PANAMA AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH WAVE
CURVATURE SIGNATURE CLEARLY OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N22W 7N28W 4N36W 5N49W
9N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 10W-19W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 32W-37W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
50W-53W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO TH4E
COAST OF AFRICA E OF 10W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM
7N S OF THE EQUATOR FROM 28W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER MEXICO N ACROSS
MEXICO TO SW TEXAS COVERING THE FAR W GULF W OF 93W. BROAD DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR E US INTO THE W ATLC DIPPING
S OVER THE GULF N OF 23N E OF 93W WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. THIS IS GENERATING SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING N FROM ACROSS CUBA S OF 27N E OF
84W. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94W.
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA ALONG 17N87W ENE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR W CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FROM THE W THROUGH THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 13N61W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 10N68W.
AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO A 1008 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE
NEAR 18N87W. THIS SETUP IS CONTINUING TO GIVE THE E CARIBBEAN
DRY AIR AND FAIR SKIES WHILE THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US EXTENDS INTO THE W
ATLC N OF 27N W OF 72W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N62W SW ALONG 27N73W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS TO THE S
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 25N80W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY S OF
27N W OF 73W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W TO BEYOND 32N66W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ACROSS FROM ACROSS E CUBA/
WINDWARD PASSAGE NE TO BEYOND 32N57W. BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N43W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE IN THE W ATLC/CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 10N68W. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 18N FROM THE
AFRICAN COAST TO 65W. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS ALONG THE AFRICA COAST
NEAR 18N17W WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING W TO 17N38W. THE AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FROM 10N-20N E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
BECOMING EVEN MORE DIFFUSE.

$$
WALLACE


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