[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081658
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE SFC ANALYSIS ALONG 19W S OF 14N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS PROBABLY ONE OF THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE WAVES SO FAR THIS EARLY SEASON. THIS TROPICAL WAVE
HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CURVATURE EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS RATHER WEAK WITH ONLY SLIGHT SIGNATURE NOTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH LITTLE IF ANY WAVE
SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WEAKENING
CONVECTION IS WELL AHEAD OF THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
ALSO REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH RATHER WEAK
CURVATURE SIGNATURE EVIDENT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 8N24W 6N32W 4N43W 7N58W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF 24W FROM 6N-12N ENHANCED
BY THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 19W. SMALL PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF
28W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING NEARLY
THE ENTIRE REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE
OVER S MEXICO NWWARD TO SW TEXAS COVERING THE FAR W GULF. THIS
IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E
OF 96W. AT THE SFC...A PAIR OF WEAK 1015 MB HIGHS ARE IN THE
AREA. ONE IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N93W AND THE OTHER OVER S MEXICO
NEAR 20N97W. THESE WEAK AREAS OF HIGH PRES ARE KEEPING A RELAXED
SFC PRES GRAD AND THE WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE PLUME OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO BACK UP NUDGING TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE AND COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF
THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF THIS WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W...
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THIS REGION. THE DEEP
TROUGH AXIS RUNS FROM THE SE U.S. INTO THE SE GULF. THE
MID-UPPER RIDGE LIES TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
23N66W WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING SWWARD TO THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND NEWARD TO 32N54W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS THE STRONGEST. AS
OF 1500 UTC...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N66W ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND W CUBA TO OVER GUATEMALA. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN IN
THIS VICINITY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...BUT TODAY CONVECTION HAS
BLOSSOMED ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. THE MOST UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS WITHIN 280 NM E OF THE SFC TROUGH AXIS. A
BROAD/ILL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRES APPEARS TO BE FORMING AT THE
BASE OF THE SFC TROUGH NEAR BELIZE. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT TC FORMATION MAY OCCUR FROM THIS ENERGY SOURCE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME A BIT LESS
HOSTILE. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL DRIFT WWARD
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND. IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER
PLENTY OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE GENERATING BY THE UPPER RIDGE.
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER...BESIDES FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN THE ATLC BEYOND 360 NM OF THE SFC BOUNDARY DUE TO
HIGH PRES RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE
MEAN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THRU 32N30W SWWARD TO AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 26N42W CONTINUING ALONG TO 20N50W UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER
RIDGE IN THE W ATLC/CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 15N65W. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REGION WITH A 1026
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N44W. THE ONLY BLEMISH IN THE SFC RIDGE
IS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW AS A SFC TROUGH ALONG 29N40W
25N43W. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS SWIRLING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER IS THE RULE ACROSS THIS REGION N OF THE ITCZ'S
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA NEAR
14N14W WWARD ALONG 11N32W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
7N59W. AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD
SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE E ATLC.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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